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By Gabriel Mathy, Skanda Amarnath and Alex Williams

Executive Summary

Whenever inflation becomes a part of political or economic discourse, policymakers and commentators instinctively reach for narratives and models drawn from the experience of the 1970s inflation. However, these models offer little explanation for even adjacent experiences of inflation. Case in point…

By Skanda Amarnath and Alex Williams

Executive Summary

The Implications of the Fed’s Framework Revisions For The Fed’s Communication of Maximum Employment:

Given the Fed’s recent framework revisions and forward guidance commitment to maintain current interest rates until “maximum employment” is achieved, the Fed’s communication with respect to its assessment of “maximum employment” is overdue for a clarification. The previous framework hardwired the Phillips Curve into…

By Alex Williams

Summary

Commentary about the Biden administration’s proposed fiscal relief policies has relied heavily on estimates of the economy’s potential output. However, few commentators or policymakers look under the hood to check how these estimates are calculated. Oftentimes, estimates of potential output — the maximum inflation-adjusted dollar value that…

By Skanda Amarnath and Alex Williams

Summary

The Fed’s framework review and forward guidance from this past fall showed an encouraging willingness to center labor market outcomes over inflation in evaluating interest rate policy. However, the Fed has only partially clarified how they will evaluate real-time inflationary dynamics within their new…

Employ America

We write, crunch #’s, and tweet about the labor market and economic policy.

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