Potential Output: Little Explanation for a Big Number

Summary

The Output Gap

The GDP Trendline Approach

Source: BEA, ALFRED Archival Series

The CBO Approach: Total Factor Productivity

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Source: BEA
Source: BEA

The CBO Approach: U*

What Could The Output Gap Be?

Today, A Problem-Solving Approach To Fiscal Relief Calibration

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We write, crunch #’s, and tweet about the labor market and economic policy.

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